EU Climate Targets Jeopardized by Inadequate Hydrogen, Biofuels, and Carbon Capture Plans

A recent report from the European Climate Neutral Observatory (ECNO) raises alarms about the potential derailment of the EU’s 2030 climate goals. The report, titled “Net Zero Risk in European Climate Planning: A Snapshot of the Transparency and Internal Consistency of Member States’ EU Climate Targets,” highlights significant shortcomings in the planning for hydrogen, biofuels, and carbon capture technologies across various EU countries.

Focusing on key sectors such as renewable electricity, hydrogen, land use, bioenergy, and geological CO2 storage, the report evaluates the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECP) of Italy, Hungary, the Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden. These countries exhibit a transparency gap, leading to a combined shortfall of 101 million tons of CO2 equivalent – surpassing Austria’s net emissions in 2021.

The report points out that current plans fail to adequately consider the overall demand for renewable energy and the anticipated increase in renewable hydrogen production. This oversight raises the risk of insufficient renewable electricity to produce the necessary green hydrogen, potentially leading to reliance on carbon-intensive hydrogen sources.

The NECPs lack concrete targets and detailed strategies for domestic bioenergy production, infrastructure development, imports, and financing. This gap poses the threat of not meeting bioenergy demand and inadvertently contributing to deforestation abroad. Additionally, an overemphasis on bioenergy could escalate competition with other land uses, such as food production.

Experts from ECNO express concerns over the lack of clarity between Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) and Carbon Capture Utilisation (CCU) in some NECPs. This ambiguity results in planning inconsistencies and uncertain climate outcomes, as CCU often involves only temporary storage, unlike the long-term geological storage (LTGS) of CO2. Moreover, a heavy reliance on CCS could entrench fossil fuel dependence by diverting focus from reducing emissions.

Julien Pestiaux, lead author of the report and partner at Climact, emphasizes the urgent need for Member States to enhance their planning efforts. The current plans are criticized for being under-detailed, incoherent, and at times contradictory. Pestiaux urges for more coherent and integrated cross-sectoral planning in the short term, advocating for a strategic approach that avoids overreliance on limited resources and addresses infrastructure bottlenecks.