China Poised to Lead in Circular Economy for EV Batteries, Outpacing EU and US: Study

China’s Edge in Achieving Circular Economy

According to a new study by researchers at the University of Munster, Germany, China is on track to achieve a circular economy in electric vehicle (EV) batteries ahead of Europe and the United States. The study, published in the journal Resources Conservation and Recycling, predicts that China will be able to meet its own demand for primary lithium for electric vehicles through recycling by 2059. This milestone is expected to be reached significantly earlier than in Europe and the US, which are not projected to achieve the same level of recycling efficiency until after 2070.

Cobalt and Nickel Recycling: A Comparative Analysis

The research also examined the recycling prospects for cobalt and nickel, two other critical raw materials for batteries. China is expected to meet its cobalt recycling needs by 2045, followed by Europe in 2052 and the US in 2056. For nickel, China is predicted to achieve recycling sufficiency in 2046, with Europe and the US trailing behind in 2058 and 2064, respectively. These findings highlight the varying speeds at which different regions are progressing towards sustainable battery recycling.

Methodology and Significance of the Study

The study used data from current research and market forecasts related to battery production and sales, as well as the demand for raw materials. The researchers conducted a dynamic material flow analysis to calculate both the future demand for raw materials and the available recyclable materials. The focus was on determining the point of “complete circularity,” where the supply of recycled materials meets the demand, known as the break-even point.

The Path to Faster Circular Economy Transition

The study’s authors, including researcher and professor Stephan von Delft and PhD student Jannis Wesselkamper, who is also the study’s corresponding author, explored ways to achieve equilibrium sooner. They found that a faster rate of electrification in the automotive industry, particularly in the EU, could accelerate the availability of batteries for recycling. Furthermore, reducing battery size and avoiding a ‘second life’ for batteries, such as using them as stationary storage units for solar power, could also contribute to meeting the demand for raw materials through recycling more rapidly.