7-9 Billion Tonnes of CO2 Removal Needed Annually to Meet Paris Climate Goals

The 2024 State of Carbon Dioxide Removal report reveals that 7–9 billion tonnes of CO2 must be removed annually by mid-century to achieve the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement. Although reducing emissions remains crucial, Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) will play a critical role in reaching net-zero.

Led by the University of Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, the report incorporates sustainability criteria aligned with multiple Sustainable Development Goals to determine the “Paris-consistent” range of CDR needed.

Currently, only 2 billion tons of CO2 are being removed per year, primarily through traditional methods like tree planting. Innovative CDR methods such as biochar, enhanced rock weathering, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) contribute merely 1.3 million tonnes annually, which is less than 0.1% of the total. Methods considered effectively permanent account for only 0.6 million tonnes per year, or less than 0.05% of the total.

The authors emphasize the urgent need to scale up a diverse range of CDR methods to meet climate goals. Despite rapid growth in research, public awareness, and start-up activity, development across multiple indicators is slowing. Investment in CDR research and start-ups is diversifying into novel methods, yet government policies and proposals to scale CDR remain limited, constituting just 1.1% of investment in climate-tech start-ups.

Dr. Steve Smith of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, highlighted the disparity: “Given the world is off track from the decarbonization required to meet the Paris temperature goal, this shows the need to increase investment in CDR as well as for zero-emission solutions across the board.”

The report notes that while CDR companies have high ambitions to drive CDR to levels consistent with the Paris Agreement, these ambitions currently lack credibility due to insufficient policy support. The authors urge governments to create policies that will increase demand for carbon removals, including integrating CDR policies into Nationally Determined Contributions (climate action plans under the UNFCCC) and improving monitoring, reporting, and verification systems.

Dr. Oliver Geden of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs advocates for a diverse CDR portfolio: “Deploying a diverse CDR portfolio is a more robust strategy than focusing on just one or two methods. Current deployment and government proposals are more concentrated on conventional CDR, mainly from forestry.”

Dr. Stephanie Roe, Global Climate and Energy Lead Scientist at WWF, underscores the need for sustainability: “To meet the Paris Agreement, any kind of climate mitigation must be done sustainably. This report finds that the more sustainable scenarios have higher amounts of emissions reductions and therefore deploy less CDR cumulatively. For the CDR that is needed, it is vital that environmental and social sustainability are explicitly embedded into planning and policy to minimize risks and maximize co-benefits.”

The annual State of Carbon Dioxide Removal report, produced by over 50 international experts, remains the leading scientific assessment of the global need for carbon dioxide removal to limit climate change and evaluates the world’s progress in delivering it.