Varcoe: Big $60B hit for Alberta in a net-zero world if Canada phases out oil and gas by 2050, study finds

‘An accelerated phaseout introduces economic pain with no added environmental gain,’ Edward Greenspon pointed out in his preface to the report

A new report examining the different paths to reach net-zero emissions indicates Canada isn’t on track to reach its final destination by 2050 — and it finds there’s a huge price to pay if the country decides to phase out oil and gas production to get there.

In fact, the additional economic consequences could be as much as $100 billion in lost GDP by 2050, with Alberta shouldering the brunt — about $60 billion — if oil and gas production is phased out in that period, says the study for the Public Policy Forum, an independent, non-profit organization.

“The cost of achieving net-zero emissions in Canada is uncertain and is not felt equally across all regions,” the report states.

Those points might seem self-evident, but it’s the nitty-gritty details on the potential economic costs and how they are allocated — or avoided — that’s worth paying attention to, particularly for an energy-producing province like Alberta.

The study, to be released Thursday, was based on an analysis by Vancouver-based Navius Research, which the forum commissioned to examine the economic implications of heading down the different routes.

“Nobody’s debating net zero. We are long past that. It’s what is the better way and what is the worst way to get to net zero in a democracy?” said forum CEO Edward Greenspon.

“One of the major findings of Navius’ work is that there are higher or lesser economic costs to pay in reaching net zero, depending on which of these paths you follow.”

Learn more: Calgary Herald