China’s Coal Permits Plunge 80% as Renewables Surpass Coal Capacity

China, the world’s largest builder of coal-fired power stations, has dramatically reduced new coal power plant permits by nearly 80% in the first half of 2024, according to a report from Greenpeace East Asia. This sharp reduction could signal a pivotal moment in China’s energy strategy, though the long-term implications remain uncertain.

For the first time, China’s combined wind and solar capacity has exceeded its coal capacity, with wind and solar reaching 11.8 terawatts compared to coal’s 11.7 terawatts. This shift reflects a broader trend, with renewables accounting for 84.2% of all new grid-connected capacity in the country. Despite this progress, China still commissioned 14 new coal plants totaling 10.3 gigawatts (GW) of power, a notable 79.3% decrease from the same period in 2023.

Gao Yuhe, a project lead at Greenpeace East Asia, noted the mixed signals from this development: “Wind and solar expansion has been strong as coal building slows, but it’s unclear what the slowdown means for the future of coal.” Gao questioned whether the slowdown is due to the approval of numerous coal projects in recent years or if it marks the beginning of the end for coal power in China’s energy transition.

Adding to this perspective, analysts from the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air observed that China’s carbon emissions might have peaked in 2023, with a 1% year-on-year drop in emissions recorded in Q2 2024, marking the first quarterly decline since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite these positive developments, China’s government maintains that coal plants are essential for maintaining grid stability, particularly during periods of peak demand, such as the intense heatwaves experienced in July. However, Greenpeace has called for increased investment in grid connectivity to fully leverage the potential of China’s expanding wind and solar capacity.

The National Development and Reform Commission has yet to comment on these developments, leaving the future of China’s coal dependency an open question as the nation continues to navigate its complex energy transition.